BCG Weather Report—October 6, 2021

Unsettled Week Continues with Some Chances of Rain Through Weekend

SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ—The 2021 New Jersey High School Football season continues to move along very quickly.  Some teams such as Carteret and South Plainfield are entering the final three games of their regular season schedule.  Weather wise, the Garden State is moving into the middle of fall.  Meteorologically speaking, fall started on September 1st while astronomically speaking it started on September 22nd.

The sunset time in New Jersey is now at 6:30 PM.  Games now start in twilight.  Average high temperature in South Plainfield, NJ for October 7th is about 66 degrees with a low of 44.  Over the past few days, the high temperatures have ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s.  Dew points have ranged between the upper 50s and low 60s.  It has been cloudy, unsettled, and muggy.

The recent weather pattern has been a result of a more easterly flow.  The pattern began during the day on Sunday, and gradually built in with clouds and some showers on Monday and Tuesday.  Wednesday got off to a gloomy start before the sun emerged during the early afternoon.  However, by the late afternoon, the clouds had returned reflecting the unsettled nature of the weather this week.

The instability and unsettledness is forecast to continue with areas of patchy fog developing on Wednesday evening, and lasting into late Thursday morning.  Skies are expected to become a mixture of clouds and sun on Thursday afternoon with a high in the mid to upper 70s according to the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly.  By game time on Thursday evening in South Brunswick, South Plainfield, and Springfield, skies are expected to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday looks to be the best day of the period with partly sunny skies and slightly higher temperatures than on Thursday.  Skies should continue to be fair by game time on Friday, but showers are expected to develop during the early morning hours on Saturday, and skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with a 30 percent chance of rain during the mid to late afternoon.

Chances of rain are expected to increase into Saturday evening as the game between Monroe and East Brunswick, scheduled for 5:00 PM on Saturday afternoon, will be finishing up.  The probability of rain will be 25 percent on Thursday, less than 5 percent on Friday, and up to near 50 percent by Saturday afternoon and evening.

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is in effect for Saturday when minor flooding is possible in coastal portions of Middlesex County.  Peak hurricane season has past, and conditions are no longer favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop in the Eastern Atlantic.  However, there is a possibility for tropical systems to develop closer to the East Coast of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is monitoring a disturbance off the Southeastern Coast of the United States.  This area of weak low pressure is located some several hundred miles off the coast of Northeastern Florida.  At the current time, the disturbance is disorganized, and only has a 10 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 days.

The tropics are quieting down, but the season doesn’t end until November 30th with a second seasonal peak to occur around the middle of this month.  Even if there is no direct landfall, these storms can still create havoc with lots of rainfall like Hurricane Joaquin and a low over the Eastern United States did with torrential rains during the first weekend in October.