BCG Weather Report—October 27, 2021

From One Big Storm to Another—Mid-Week Nor’easter Moves Out, But Another Storm Set for Friday

SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ—For much of the month of October, the weather has been dry.  Entering this week, there had been only 1.55 inches of rain at Greg’s Weather Center in South Plainfield, NJ.  There had been a couple roller coaster rides in terms of temperature, but not much of a problem in terms of precipitation.

However, weather conditions began to become chaotic over the weekend as a tremendous storm system began to impact the west coast.  If you were watching the Sunday Night Football game on NBC between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers at Levis Stadium, you not only saw the torrential rainfall and stormy conditions, but also heard terms such as “bomb cyclone” and “atmospheric river”.

Further to the east, severe weather gripped the Midwest and Great Plains.  Tornadoes touched down in places such as Missouri and Illinois.  Meanwhile, temperatures warmed up again here in the East.  On Monday, the thermometer climbed to a high of 75 after a low of 54 earlier in the day at GWC in South Plainfield.  The warmth set the stage for some wild weather on Monday evening.

Following our coverage of the Freshmen and JV doubleheader between Hillsborough and Piscataway at Noonan Field in Hillsborough, the skies grew more overcast and a potent line of thunderstorms developed over Mercer County moved northward.  Mother Nature put on quite a lightning show for this time of the year as strong thunderstorms moved through GWC and Middlesex County.

The severe weather on Monday night ushered in meteorological turmoil as the first nor’easter of the season emerged off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  Over a span of 36 to 40 hours, from Monday night to Wednesday afternoon, GWC received 4.14 inches of rain to increase this month’s rainfall total to 5.69 inches.  In other words, approximately 73 percent of the rainfall in the month of October 2021 came over the last day and a half.

The barometer fell to 29.31 on Tuesday afternoon before the nor’easter pulled away.  Pressure equivalent to 993 millibars, or about the intensity of a very strong tropical storm came with this nor’easter.  Fed by the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off the East Coast of the United States, the nor’easter bombed out, or became a bomb cyclone.

What is a bomb cyclone?  It is a low pressure system that experiences a drop in pressure of 24 millibars over a span of 24 hours.  In other words, the barometric pressure in the storm drops like a rock, or falls very rapidly.  So, was the case for the storm hitting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on Sunday night, which had the lowest pressure of any storm to hit the West Coast at 942 millibars, or 27.82 inches of Hg (Mercury).

Our first nor’easter of the 2021-22 season is now pulling away, and pressure is on the rise, but expect unstable conditions with some lingering showers and gusty winds.  Coastal flood advisory remains in effect along the Jersey Shore until 5:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.  Conditions will be tranquil for Thursday, but another storm is forecast to affect the region on Friday.

According to long time New York City Metropolitan area meteorologist, Joe Cioffi, tonight will see skies continuing to clear as clouds continue to move out, and Thursday looks to be a fine day for this time of year with temperatures ranging in the 50s with some areas getting near 60.  For Friday, another storm will approach, but with the blocking pattern that has been in place for the past several days breaking down, this storm will stay mostly to our west.

The storm will also move quickly, and bring about 6 hours worth of rain, which should range between one to two inches with temperatures in the 60s.  Accu-Weather is calling for high of 59 and a 65 percent chance of rain on Friday, and then a 68 percent chance of rain with a high of 66 on Saturday.  Rain is expected to linger into Sunday for the Trick-or-Treaters on Halloween with a 61 percent chance of rain and a high of 63.

The Weather Channel, like Accu-Weather, and Cioffi, is also calling for a nice day on Thursday for the BCC Crossover between David Brearley and Jonathan Dayton in Kenilworth with a high of 62 degrees under clear skies.  Then, on Friday, TWC is calling for a high of 58 degrees, and a near 60 percent chance of rain.  By game time Friday night, the chance of precipitation increases to near 100 percent with a low of only 54.

TWC also indicates that the rain is expected to continue for much if not all of Saturday with a 73 percent chance of rain along with a high of 66.  However, TWC differs when we get to Halloween with the chance of rain decreasing to less than 25 percent with a high of 64 degrees.  The tropics continue to remain quiet in the Atlantic although this latest nor’easter has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 5 days.