BCG Weather Report—November 11, 2021

Marginal Risk for Severe Weather on Friday as Strong Cold Front Pushes East

SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ—Today is Veterans Day, and two weeks from Thanksgiving.  However, the temperatures have not been exactly cooperating with the calendar.  Tuesday and Wednesday were very nice days although it was quite breezy on Wednesday.  Temperatures climbed up into the upper 60s to low 70s.

After a bit of a chill late last week, and over this past weekend, the thermometer went on a bit of a roller coaster ride.  From a low of 28 on Sunday morning to yesterday’s high of 72 in New Brunswick, temperatures made the rebound as high pressure that moved in over the weekend, moved offshore, and resulted in a more southwesterly flow and consequently, the warmer weather over the past two days.

Enjoy the nice weather now, especially on this Veteran’s Day, which is a day off for most including kids attending schools all across the Garden State, since the weather is going to be a bit chaotic starting on Thursday night into early Friday afternoon.  A vast storm system is sitting in the middle of the country right now, and it will be bringing some significant changes with it by the end of this weekend.

Led by a cold front that extends from the Northern Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, this storm system is already bringing Gale Warnings in Northern Wisconsin.  Rain is currently pushing through Madison, Wisconsin, and is accompanied by breezy conditions.  The rain is rapidly moving out of that area, and the temperatures are dropping with the high only expected to reach 46 today, and fall to only a high of 36 on Sunday with a chance of snow showers.

While there is no widespread area of severe weather currently throughout the Continental United States right now, expect that to change as this frontal system pushes eastward into more relatively warmer and humid air in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  Today’s forecast high in New Brunswick and at Greg’s Weather Center in South Plainfield, NJ will be in the mid 60s.  By Sunday, the afternoon highs will be struggling to get to 50.

So this front is going to dramatically cool things down and dry things out by the end of the weekend.  Then, by Tuesday, there could be a chance of a freeze in places around Central Jersey according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly early Thursday morning.

With the significant difference in temperature and dew point ahead and behind this front, there is a chance for severe weather, especially late Friday morning into Friday afternoon according to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.  NOAA’s SPC has placed the Northern Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England, which includes all of New Jersey under a marginal risk for severe weather late Friday morning to early Friday afternoon.

During the late morning and early afternoon on Friday, we could see some gusty winds accompany the squall line associated with this frontal system.  Most likely we will have some gusty winds and showers, but a few areas could see a thunderstorm, and perhaps a tornado.  The National Weather Service in Mount Holly is calling for an 80 percent chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm as early as Thursday night.

Chances for precipitation will rise during the course of Thursday evening from 30 percent to 80 percent.  The chances increase to 100 percent by late Friday morning to early Friday afternoon with some of the showers and storms to be accompanied by gusty winds.  Rainfall amounts on Thursday night range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch, and then increase to a half to three quarters of an inch on Friday.  

Looking at the hourly forecast data from Accu-Weather and The Weather Channel, it looks like the rain will hold off under after Thursday night’s regional crossover games are played.  Accu-Weather is calling for the chances of rain to really increase after midnight on Friday.  The Weather Channel has the chances of rain beginning to climb earlier around 9:00 PM.

Taking all of this into account, those including BCG, who plan to take in any of the Thursday evening NJSIAA Regional Crossovers might want to have an umbrella handy tonight, especially on the way back to the car to head home.  As far as Friday evening’s state playoff games go, the skies should be drying out and clearing out by the time the games kickoff, but again, have an umbrella handy just in case.

For Saturday’s games, the weather will be in transition as high pressure begins to fill in after the departing frontal system.  For instance, at Cedar Creek High School in Egg Harbor City, skies will be mostly sunny, but with a slight chance of showers during the day.  High temperatures will be in the mid 60s.  Meanwhile, in nearby Hammonton, conditions will be similar with temperatures in the low 60s.